Kwikota yesibini ka-2026, i-index ye-oda yokuthumela ngaphandle ye-aluminium profile yaseTshayina ibuyele umva kangangeenyanga ezintathu zilandelelana, iguqula umkhwa wokucotha kwekota yokuqala. Ngokwedatha evela kwi-China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuMeyi ka-2026, umthamo wee-aluminium profiles ezithunyelwa ngaphandle eTshayina wawumalunga neetoni ezingama-980000, ukunyuka konyaka nonyaka kwe-8.5%. Isixa sokuthumela ngaphandle simalunga ne-4.2 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika, ukunyuka konyaka nonyaka kwe-12.3%. Ukwanda okuphambili kuvela kwimarike yaseMzantsi-mpuma Asia kunye nekhonkco lokubonelela ngezithuthi zombane zaseMntla Melika, ezithi xa zizonke zibe negalelo kwi-72% yokunyuka kokuthumela ngaphandle.
Ukukhawuleziswa kweZakhiwo zoPhuhliso eMzantsi-mpuma Asia: Inqanaba elitsha loKhulo lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweProfayili yeAluminiyam
Ubungakanani botyalo-mali kwiziseko zophuhliso ze-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) kulindeleke ukuba bufikelele kwi-210 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika ngo-2026, ukwanda konyaka nonyaka kwe-15%. Ukwakhiwa kwekomkhulu elitsha lase-Indonesia, iNusantara, kungene kwixesha eliphezulu, kunye nemfuno enamandla ye-aluminium edla iindonga zekhethini, iingcango kunye neefestile, kunye nezixhobo zothutho. IVietnam neThailand zikhawulezise ukufakwa kwazo kwe-photovoltaic, kunye nee-odolo zokuthumela ngaphandle zeeprofayili ze-aluminium ezisetyenziswa kwizakhelo ze-photovoltaic zisanda ngaphezulu kwe-40% unyaka nonyaka. Iiprojekthi zothutho lukaloliwe eMalaysia nasePhilippines ziyaqhubeka kakhulu, kwaye umthamo wokuthengwa kweeprofayili ze-aluminium kunyeamashiti e-aluminiyaminyukile kakhulu. Imarike yaseMzantsi-mpuma Asia ixhomekeke kakhulu kwiiprofayili ze-aluminium zaseTshayina, ikakhulu ngenxa yokungonelanga kokulungiswa kwe-aluminium kulo mmandla ukuhlangabezana neemfuno zeziseko zophuhliso, kwaye iimveliso zaseTshayina zineengenelo ezinkulu zokhuphiswano ngokubhekiselele ekusebenzeni kakuhle kweendleko.
Ukubala ukuya kwiirhafu zekhabhoni ze-EU: uxinzelelo lweendleko olumalunga ne-80-120 yee-euro ngetoni nganye
I-EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) iza kungena kwinqanaba elibanzi lokuphunyezwa ngo-2026, kwaye iimveliso ze-aluminium ziya kubandakanywa kwibhetshi yokuqala yoluhlu lwerhafu. Ngokwezibalo zeKhomishini yaseYurophu, umlinganiselo wokukhupha ikhabhoni we-aluminium ye-electrolytic eTshayina malunga neetoni ezili-14.5 ze-CO₂/ton ye-aluminium, ephezulu kakhulu kuneetoni ezi-6 ze-CO₂/ton ye-aluminium eveliswa yi-aluminium yasekhaya e-EU. Ngokusekelwe kwixabiso lekhabhoni le-EU langoku elimalunga nee-euro ezingama-85/ton ye-CO₂, ukuthumela ngaphandle iimveliso ze-aluminium zaseTshayina kwi-EU kuya kujongana neendleko zekhabhoni ezimalunga nee-euro ezingama-80~120/ton, ezilingana nee-yuan ezingama-620~930/ton kwi-yuan yaseTshayina. Ukuba eli xabiso lidluliselwa ngokupheleleyo, liya kunciphisa kakhulu ukhuphiswano lwamaxabiso lweemveliso ze-aluminium zaseTshayina kwimarike yaseYurophu. Abanye abathengi baseYurophu baqalise ukucela ababoneleli ukuba banike isiqinisekiso sekhabhoni yemveliso, kwaye ixabiso leemveliso ze-aluminium ezinekhabhoni ephantsi liya libonakala kancinci kancinci.
Indlela Yokuphuhla Kweshishini: Uphuhliso Oluluhlaza, Olunekhabhoni Ephantsi, kunye Nophuhliso Oluphezulu
Ngenxa yoxinzelelo lwerhafu yekhabhoni, amashishini okucubungula i-aluminium asekhaya akhawulezisa ulwakhiwo lwemveliso eluhlaza kunye nekhabhoni ephantsi. IYunnan, iSichuan kunye neminye imimandla ekumzantsi-ntshona ixhomekeke kwimithombo emininzi yamandla ombane ukuze iphuhlise ngamandla iiprojekthi ze-aluminium ezidibeneyo zamanzi. Ubungakanani bokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kwe-aluminium yamanzi bunokwehliswa bube ngaphantsi kweetoni ezi-8 ze-CO₂/ton ye-aluminium, engaphantsi nge-45% kune-aluminium yamandla obushushu. Ukongeza, ishishini le-aluminium esetyenzisiweyo lingene kwixesha lophuhliso, ngobungakanani bokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni obumalunga neetoni ezili-1.5 ze-CO₂ ngetoni ye-aluminium, nto leyo ebonisa iingenelo ezibalulekileyo zekhabhoni ephantsi. Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2026, imveliso yasekhaya ye-aluminium esetyenzisiweyo iya kuba malunga neetoni ezi-7.8 zezigidi, ukunyuka konyaka nge-11.2%, okubangela i-22% yobonelelo lwe-aluminium iyonke. Ngokuphathelele iimveliso eziphezulu, umlinganiselo wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe weemveliso ezinexabiso eliphezulu ezifana ne-aluminium yokukhanyisa iimoto, i-aluminium yeenqwelo moya, kunye ne-aluminium foil yebhetri yamandla uyaqhubeka nokukhula, kwaye ulwakhiwo lwemveliso yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe luyenziwa ngcono kancinci kancinci.
Ukhuphiswano lwasekhaya: Uxinzelelo oluphindwe kabini lokwandiswa kwamandla kunye nokwahluka kweemfuno
Umthamo wokucubungula i-aluminium yasekhaya uyaqhubeka nokukhula. Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sowama-2026, umthamo omtsha wokuvelisa iprofayili ye-aluminium uza kuba malunga ne-1.2 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka, kwaye umthamo wonke wokuvelisa uza kudlula iitoni ezingama-45 ezigidi ngonyaka, ngelixa ukusetyenziswa okubonakalayo kuya kuba malunga ne-42 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka. Ipateni yomthamo ogqithisileyo ayitshintshanga. Ukuqina kokhuphiswano kukhokelele kuxinzelelo oluqhubekayo kwiintlawulo zokucubungula. Umrhumo wokucubungula iiprofayili ze-aluminium eziqhelekileyo zokwakha uye wehla waya kwi-2500 ~ 3000 yuan/ton, ukwehla malunga ne-40% ukusuka kwinqanaba eliphezulu ngo-2020. Ukwahluka kwenzuzo yamashishini kuyanda, kwaye isabelo semarike samashishini amakhulu aneenzuzo eziphantsi kwekhabhoni, iimveliso eziphezulu, kunye nolwakhiwo lwabathengi abasemgangathweni ophezulu luyaqhubeka nokwanda. Indawo yokuphila yamashishini amancinci naphakathi okucubungula iyancitshiswa ngakumbi.
Ii-odolo zokuthumela ngaphandle zeprofayili ye-aluminium ziphinde zanda kangangeenyanga ezintathu zilandelelana, nto leyo ebonisa ukuphucuka okuncinci kwimfuno yangaphandle, kunye neziseko zophuhliso zaseMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia kunye neekhonkco zokubonelela ngezithuthi zombane zaseNyakatho Melika zezona zinto ziphambili eziqhubayo. Kodwa ukuphunyezwa ngokupheleleyo kweerhafu zekhabhoni ze-EU kusondele, kwaye ukukhuphisana ngekhabhoni ephantsi kuya kuba yinto ebalulekileyo emisela ikamva lamashishini okuthumela ngaphandle. Amashishini okucubungula i-aluminium yasekhaya kufuneka akhawulezise utshintsho lwawo oluluhlaza nolunekhabhoni ephantsi, aphucule ulwakhiwo lwemveliso yawo yokuthumela ngaphandle, ukuze angoyiswa kukhuphiswano lwamazwe ngamazwe.
Ixesha leposi: Julayi-16-2026