1. Ugxininiso loMnyhadala: I-United States iceba ukurhoxisa okwethutyana amaxabiso eemoto, kwaye ikhonkco lokubonelela ngeenkampani zeemoto liya kunqunyanyiswa.
Kutshanje, owayesakuba nguMongameli wase-US uTrump uthethe esidlangalaleni ukuba ucinga ngokumisela ukukhululwa kwirhafu yexesha elifutshane kwiimoto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kunye neenxalenye ukuvumela iinkampani ezikhwela simahla ukuba zilungelelanise amakhonkco azo okubonelela kwimveliso yasekhaya e-United States. Nangona umda kunye nobude bokukhululwa kungacacanga, le nkcazo ngokukhawuleza ibangele ulindelo lwemarike yokunciphisa uxinzelelo lweendleko kwikhonkco lehlabathi leemoto.
Ukwandiswa okungasemva
I-"de Sinicization" yeenkampani zeemoto zijongene nemiqobo: Ngo-2024, inani leenxalenye ze-aluminium ezingeniswe ngabavelisi beemoto zaseMelika ezivela e-China zehla nge-18% ngonyaka, kodwa umlinganiselo wezinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle ezivela eCanada naseMexico ukuya eUnited States zinyuke zaya kuma-45%. Iinkampani zeemoto zisaxhomekeke kwikhonkco lokubonelela ngengingqi yaseMntla Melika kwixesha elifutshane.
Inxalenye engundoqo yokusetyenziswa kwe-aluminiyam: Ishishini lokwenziwa kweemoto libalelwa kwi-25% -30% yemfuno ye-aluminiyam yehlabathi, ngokusetyenziswa ngonyaka malunga ne-4.5 yezigidi zeetoni kwimarike yase-US. Ukukhululwa kuluhlu lweerhafu kunokuvuselela ukuphinda kubuyeleke kwexesha elifutshane kwimfuno yemathiriyeli ye-aluminiyam evela kumazwe angaphandle.
2. Impembelelo yeMarike: Ukwandiswa kweMfuno yexesha elifutshane ngokuchasene noMdlalo wexesha elide wokuHlanganisa
Izibonelelo zexeshana elifutshane: Ukukhululwa kwiRhafu kuxhokonxa ulindelo 'lokuhlutha impahla ephuma ngaphandle'
Ukuba iUnited States isebenzisa iinyanga ezi-6 ukuya kwezili-12 zokungahlawulisi kwiinxalenye zeemoto ezivela kwamanye amazwe ezivela eKhanada naseMexico, iinkampani zeemoto zinokukhawulezisa ukugcinwa kwempahla ukunciphisa umngcipheko weendleko kwixesha elizayo. Kuqikelelwa ukuba imboni yeemoto zase-US kufuneka ingenise malunga ne-120000 yeetoni ze-aluminium (iipaneli zomzimba, iinxalenye zokufa, njl.) ngenyanga, kwaye ixesha lokukhululwa lingaqhuba ukwanda kwemfuno ye-aluminium yehlabathi ye-300000 ukuya kwi-500000 yeetoni ngonyaka. Amaxabiso e-aluminium ye-LME abuyele kwakhona ekuphenduleni, enyuka nge-1.5% ukuya kwi-2520 yeedola ngeetoni nge-14 ka-Epreli.
Ixesha elide elibi: Imveliso yendawo icinezela imfuno ye-aluminiyam yaphesheya
Ukwandiswa kwamandla okuvelisa i-aluminiyam esetyenzisiweyo e-US: Ngo-2025, amandla okuvelisa i-aluminiyam asetyenzisiweyo e-US kulindeleke ukuba adlule kwi-6 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka. Umgaqo-nkqubo "wendawo" weenkampani zeemoto uya kubeka phambili ukuthengwa kwe-aluminium ephantsi kwekhabhoni, ukucinezela imfuno ye-aluminium yokuqala ephuma kumazwe angaphandle.
Indima "yesikhululo sokuhamba" saseMexico ibuthathaka: Imveliso yeGigafactory yaseTesla yaseMexico ihlehlisiwe kude kube ngu-2026, kwaye ukukhululwa kwexesha elifutshane akunakwenzeka ukuba kutshintshe indlela yokubuya kwexesha elide kwiinkampani zemoto.
3. Unxulumaniso lweshishini: umgaqo-nkqubo we-arbitrage kunye nohlengahlengiso lwezorhwebo lwe-aluminiyam yehlabathi
Umdlalo we-China 'wexesha lefestile' yokuthumela ngaphandle
Ukuthunyelwa kwemveliso ye-aluminiyam kumazwe angaphandle kuye kwanda: Ipleyiti ye-aluminiyam yemoto yaseTshayina kunye nokuthunyelwa kwe-strip kumazwe angaphandle kunyuke ngama-32% unyaka nonyaka ngoMatshi. Ukuba iUnited States iyayikhulula kwiirhafu, amashishini aqhubayo kwingingqi yaseYangtze River Delta (efana neChalco kunye neAsia Pacific Technology) anokujongana nokunyuka kwee-odolo.
Urhwebo lokuthumela ngaphandle kwakhona luya kufudumala: umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwe-aluminiyam ogqityiweyo ukusuka kumazwe akuMzantsi-mpuma Asia anjengeMalaysia neVietnam ukuya eUnited States unokunyuka ngale jelo, ukuthintela imiqobo yemvelaphi.
Iinkampani ze-aluminium zaseYurophu ziphantsi koxinzelelo oluvela kumacala omabini
Ukungabikho kweendleko kubonakaliswe: ixabiso elipheleleyo le-aluminium electrolytic eYurophu lisephezulu kune-$ 2500 / ton, kwaye ukuba i-US ifuna utshintsho kwimveliso yasekhaya, izityalo ze-aluminium zaseYurophu zinganyanzeliswa ukuba zinciphise imveliso (njengesityalo saseJamani e-Heidelberg).
Uphuculo lwesithintelo esiluhlaza: Irhafu ye-EU carbon border (CBAM) ihlanganisa imboni ye-aluminium, iqinisa ukhuphiswano lwemigangatho "ye-carbon-aluminium ephantsi" e-US naseYurophu.
Ubhejo olukhulu lwenkunzi 'kwinkqubo eguquguqukayo'
Ngokutsho kwedatha ye-aluminium ye-CME ye-aluminium, ngo-Ephreli 14, ukubanjwa kweenketho zokufowuna kwanda nge-25%, kunye nexabiso le-aluminium lidlula i-2600 yeedola zase-US ngetoni emva kokuba ukhululo lunikezelwe; Kodwa i-Goldman Sachs ilumkisa ukuba ukuba ixesha lokuxolelwa lifutshane kuneenyanga ze-6, amaxabiso e-aluminium anokunika ukuzuza kwabo.
4. Ukuqikelelwa kwexabiso le-Aluminium Trend: I-Policy Pulse kunye ne-Basic Clash
Ixesha elifutshane (iinyanga ezi-1-3)
Ukuqhubela phambili: Ukukhululwa kwizinto ezilindelekileyo kuvuselela imfuno yokubuyisela, kunye ne-inventory ye-LME ehla ngaphantsi kweetoni ze-400000 (iitoni ezingama-398000 ezichazwe ngo-Aprili 13), amaxabiso e-aluminium anokuvavanya uluhlu lwe-2550-2600 yeedola zase-US / toni.
Umngcipheko osezantsi: Ukuba iinkcukacha zokuxolelwa azikho njengoko zilindelekile (ezifana nokukhawulelwa kwisithuthi sonke kunye neengxenye ezingabandakanyiyo), amaxabiso e-aluminium angabuyela kwinqanaba lenkxaso ye-$ 2450 / ton.
Ixesha eliphakathi (iinyanga ezi-6-12)
Umahluko wemfuno: Ukukhutshwa kwesakhono sokuvelisa i-aluminiyam esetyenzisiweyo yasekhaya e-United States icinezela ukuthengwa kwamanye amazwe, kodwa ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-Chinaizithuthi zamandla amatsha(ngonyuso lonyaka lwemfuno yeetoni ezingama-800000) kunye neeprojekthi zeziseko zophuhliso kuMazantsi-mpuma Asia uthango ngokuchasene neziphumo ezibi.
Iziko lexabiso: Amaxabiso e-aluminium ye-LME anokugcina uluhlu olubanzi lokuguquguquka kwe-2300-2600 yeedola zase-US / itoni, kunye nokunyuka kwinqanaba lokuphazamiseka komgaqo-nkqubo.
Ixesha lokuposa: Apr-15-2025