Ukutsalwa kwemfazwe kwi-yuan ye-20000 uphawu lwamaxabiso e-aluminium sele iqalile. Ngubani oya kuba ngoyena mntu uphumeleleyo phantsi komgaqo-nkqubo "wedada elimnyama"?

Ngo-Aprili 29, i-2025, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo le-aluminium ye-A00 kwimarike yendawo ye-Yangtze yabikwa kwi-20020 yuan / ton, kunye nokunyuka kwemihla ngemihla ye-yuan ye-70; Ikhontrakthi ephambili ye-aluminium ye-Shanghai, i-2506, ivaliwe kwi-19930 yuan / ton. Nangona yayiguquguquka kancinci kwiseshini yasebusuku, isabambe inqanaba eliphambili lenkxaso ye-yuan ye-19900 emini. Emva kwalo mkhwa wokunyuka kukuhambelana phakathi kwe-inventri ecacileyo yehlabathi ewela kwimbali ephantsi kunye nokuqina kwemidlalo yomgaqo-nkqubo:

Uluhlu lwe-aluminium ye-LME lwehlile ukuya kwiitoni ze-417575, kunye neveki engaphantsi kweentsuku ezikhoyo, kunye neendleko eziphezulu zamandla eYurophu (kunye namaxabiso egesi yendalo abuyele kwi-35 ye-euro / i-megawatt iyure) icinezela inkqubela phambili yokuqalisa kwakhona imveliso.

Uluhlu lwezentlalo lwe-Aluminiyam yaseShanghai yehle nge-6.23% ukuya kwi-178597 yeetoni ngeveki. Ngenxa yokukhutshwa okugxininisiweyo kwesixhobo sasekhaya kunye neeodolo zemoto kwingingqi esemazantsi, iprimiyamu yendawo ingaphezulu kwe-200 yuan/toni, kwaye indawo yokugcina impahla yakwaFoshan kwafuneka ime emgceni ngaphezulu kweentsuku ezi-3 ukuze ithathe iimpahla.

Ⅰ. Ingqiqo Yokuqhuba: Funa ukuZinzisa vs. Ukuwa kweendleko

1. Imfuno yamandla amatsha ikhokela, kwaye amacandelo emveli afumana ukubuyiswa komda

Umphumo wokugqibela wokukhawuleza ukufaka i-photovoltaics: Ngo-Epreli, ukuveliswa kweemodyuli ze-photovoltaic kwanda nge-17% ngenyanga ngenyanga, kwaye imfuno yeefreyimu ze-aluminium zanda nge-22% ngonyaka. Nangona kunjalo, njengoko indawo yomgaqo-nkqubo isondela ngoMeyi, ezinye iinkampani ziye zakhupha ii-odolo kwangaphambili.

I-Automobile lightweighting acceleration: Isixa se-aluminiyam esetyenziswa kwizithuthi zamandla amatsha kwisithuthi ngasinye sigqithile kwiikhilogram ezingama-350, siqhuba isantya sokusebenza kwepleyiti ye-aluminiyam, i-strip kunye ne-foil amashishini anyuke ukuya kuma-82%. Nangona kunjalo, ngo-Epreli, izinga lokukhula kokuthengiswa kweemoto liye lancipha ukuya kwi-12%, kwaye isiphumo sokuphindaphinda kwezorhwebo kumgaqo-nkqubo buthathaka.

Umgca ongezantsi wee-odolo zegridi yamandla: Ibhetshi yesibini yeGridi yeState ye-ultra-high voltage biding yezixhobo ze-aluminium yi-143000 yeetoni, kwaye amashishini entambo ze-aluminiyam asebenza ngokuzeleyo, exhasa ukuveliswa kwepali ye-aluminiyam ukugcina ukuphakama kweminyaka emihlanu.

iAluminiyam (51)

2. Kwicala leendleko, kukho izinto ezimbini ezigqithisileyo: umkhenkce kunye nomlilo

Uxinzelelo lwe-alumina engaphezulu luyabonakala: ukuqaliswa kwakhona kwemveliso kwimigodi ye-Shanxi kutyhale ixabiso le-bauxite libuyele kwi-$ 80 / itoni, ixabiso lendawo ye-alumina liwele ngaphantsi kwe-2900 yuan / ton, ixabiso le-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic yehla ukuya kwi-16500 yuan / ton, kwaye i-avareji yengeniso ye-37000000 yandisiwe ukuya kwi-yuan.

Amanqaku aphezulu e-aluminiyam ye-aluminiyam eluhlaza: Ixabiso le-aluminiyam ye-aluminiyam ye-Yunnan yi-yuan engama-2000 ngaphantsi kwamandla okushisa, kunye nomda wengeniso ye-gross yamashishini afana ne-Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd. idlula i-avareji yoshishino ngeepesenti ezi-5 zeepesenti, ukukhawulezisa ukucocwa kwamandla okuvelisa amandla okushisa.

Ⅱ. Umdlalo omkhulu: Ipolisi 'ikrele elintlangothi-mbini' ikrazula ulindelo lwemarike

1. Imigaqo-nkqubo yohlumo lwasekhaya oluzinzileyo ikhusela iingozi zemfuno zangaphandle

Ulwakhiwo olukwindawo esembindini yeeprojekthi zeziseko ezingundoqo: IKomishoni yoPhuhliso noHlaziyo yeSizwe iceba ukukhupha uluhlu lweeprojekthi “ezimbini” unyaka wonke phambi kokuphela kukaJuni, ekulindeleke ukuba iqhube ukonyuka kweetoni ezingama-500000 kusetyenziso lwe-aluminiyam.

Okulindelekileyo kumgaqo-nkqubo wezemali: Ibhanki enguvimba ibhengeze “ngexesha lokuthotywa kwereyishini yemfuneko yogcino kunye nenzala”, kwaye ulindelo lokungabi namali mboleko lukhuthaze ukuhamba kwemali kwimarike yempahla yorhwebo.

2. Idada elimnyama laphesheya kolwandle 'lisongela ukunyuka

Uphinda-phindo lwemigaqo-nkqubo yerhafu yase-US: ukumisela umrhumo wama-70% kwiiimveliso ze-aluminiumukusuka e-China ukucinezela ukuthunyelwa ngokuthe ngqo kwamanye amazwe, kuchaphazela ngokungangqalanga amatyathanga emizi-mveliso afana nezixhobo zasekhaya kunye neendawo zemoto. Uqikelelo lwe-Static lubonisa ukuba ukubonakaliswa kwe-aluminium kwi-US yi-2.3%.

Imfuno ebuthathaka eYurophu: Inani lokubhaliswa kweemoto ezintsha kwi-EU kwikota yokuqala liye lancipha nge-1.9% ngonyaka, kwaye ukwanda kwemveliso ye-Trimet eJamani kucinezele isithuba se-aluminiyam yaseLondon. Izinga lotshintshiselwano lwase-Shanghai yaseLondon likhuphuke laya kwi-8.3, kwaye ilahleko yokungenisa elizweni idlule i-yuan eyi-1000/toni.

Ⅲ. Idabi leNgxowa-mali: eyona nto iphambili iyantlukwano, ukujikeleziswa kwecandelo kuyakhawuleza

Idabi elifutshane elide kwimarike yexesha elizayo: I-Shanghai Aluminiyam engundoqo yokubamba ikhontrakthi yehle ngamaqashiso angama-10393 ngosuku, izikhundla ezinde ze-Yong'an Futures zehla ngamaqashiso angama-12000, izikhundla ezimfutshane zikaGuotai Jun'an zanda ngamaqashiso angama-1800, kunye nemvakalelo yokuchasa umngcipheko wemali eshushu.

I-stock market inolwahlulo olucacileyo: icandelo le-aluminium concept yecandelo lenyuka nge-1.05% ngosuku olunye, kodwa i-China Aluminium Industry yawela nge-0.93%, ngelixa i-Nanshan Aluminium Industry inyuke nge-5.76% ngokuchasene ne-trend, kunye neemali ezigxininiswe kwi-aluminium ye-hydropower kunye neenkokheli eziphezulu zokulungisa.

Ⅳ. Umbono wekamva: Intengiso ye-Pulse iphantsi kwebhalansi eqinile

Ixesha elifutshane (iinyanga ezi-1-2)

Ukuguquguquka kwexabiso elinamandla: Ixhaswe yi-inventory ephantsi kunye nemfuno yokuzaliswa kwakhona kweholide, i-Shanghai Aluminium inokuvavanya inqanaba loxinzelelo lwe-yuan ye-20300, kodwa isilumkiso kufuneka sisetyenziswe ngokuchasene ne-dollar yase-US ebangelwa ukulibaziseka kokunciphisa inzala ye-Federal Reserve.

Isilumkiso somngcipheko: Utshintsho olukhawulezileyo kumgaqo-nkqubo we-bauxite wokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-Indonesia kunye nengxaki yokuhanjiswa kwempahla ebangelwe zizohlwayo ze-aluminiyam yaseRussia zinokuvusa umngcipheko wokugcinwa ngenkani.

Ixesha eliphakathi ukuya kwelide (isiqingatha sesibini sika-2025)

Ukuqhelaniswa kwebhalansi eqinile: Umthamo wemveliso ye-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic kwihlabathi jikelele ungaphantsi kweetoni ze-1 yesigidi ngonyaka, kwaye imfuno yamandla amatsha inyuka ngeetoni ze-800000 ngonyaka, okwenza kube nzima ukuvala umsantsa.

Ukwakhiwa kwakhona kwexabiso kwitsheyini yoshishino: Izinga lokusetyenziswa kwe-aluminiyam esetyenzisiweyo idlule i-85%, kwaye iteknoloji ye-die-casting edibeneyo iqhube i-process gross profit to 20%. Amashishini anemiqobo yezobuchwepheshe aya kukhokela umjikelo olandelayo wohlumo.

[Idatha ekwinqaku ifunyenwe kwi-intanethi, kwaye iimbono zezereferensi kuphela kwaye azisetyenziswa njengesiseko sotyalo-mali]


Ixesha lokuposa: May-06-2025