Ngokutsho kwedatha ye-aluminium ye-aluminium ekhutshwe yi-London Metal Exchange (LME) kunye ne-Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), ngo-Matshi 21, i-LME i-aluminium inventory yawela kwiitoni ze-483925, ibetha i-low low ukususela ngoMeyi 2024; Kwelinye icala, uluhlu lwe-aluminiyam ye-Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) yehle nge-6.95% ngeveki ukuya kwi-233240 yeetoni, ebonisa ipateni yokwahlula "iqinile ngaphandle kwaye ikhululekile ngaphakathi". Le datha ihluke kakhulu ekusebenzeni okuqinileyo kwe-LME amaxabiso e-aluminium ukuzinza kwi-$ 2300 / toni kunye ne-Shanghai i-aluminium izivumelwano eziphambili ezinyuka nge-20800 yuan / toni ngosuku olufanayo, ebonisa umdlalo onzima wehlabathi jikelele.ishishini aluminiyamikhonkco eliphantsi konikezelo kunye nohlengahlengiso lwemfuno kunye nokhuphiswano lwe-geopolitical.
Inqanaba eliphantsi leenyanga ezilishumi le-LME ye-aluminiyam ye-aluminiyam sisiphumo se-resonance phakathi kwengxabano yase-Russia-Ukraine kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo we-Indonesia wokuthumela ngaphandle. Emva kokulahlekelwa yimarike yaseYurophu ngenxa yezohlwayo, iRusal yatshintshela ukuthunyelwa kwayo eAsia. Nangona kunjalo, ukuvalwa kokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-bauxite okuphunyezwe yi-Indonesia ngo-2025 kuye kwakhokelela ekuqinisweni konikezelo lwe-alumina yehlabathi, ngokungahambi ngokuthe ngqo ukuqhuba iindleko ze-LME ze-aluminium. Idatha ibonisa ukuba ngoJanuwari kunye noFebruwari 2025, ukuthunyelwa kwe-bauxite yase-Indonesia kwehle nge-32% ngonyaka, ngelixa ixabiso le-alumina yase-Australia linyuka nge-18% ngonyaka ukuya kwi-$ 3200 / toni, ngokuqhubekayo ukucinezela imida yenzuzo ye-smelters yaphesheya. Kwicala lemfuno, abavelisi beemoto zaseYurophu baye bakhawuleza ukuhanjiswa kwemigca yokuvelisa e-China ukuphepha umngcipheko weerhafu, ukuqhuba ukunyuka kwe-210% ngonyaka kwi-China ye-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic (kunye nokungeniswa kwe-610000 iitoni ngoJanuwari noFebruwari). Oku' ukufakwa ngaphakathi kweemfuno zangaphandle 'kwenza uluhlu lwe-LME lube sisalathisi esibuthathaka esibonisa unikezelo lwamazwe ngamazwe kunye neenkcaso zemfuno.
I-rebound ye-inventory ye-aluminium yasekhaya yase-Shanghai inxulumene ngokusondeleyo nomjikelo wokukhulula umthamo wemveliso kunye nohlengahlengiso lokulindela umgaqo-nkqubo. Ukunciphisa imveliso (malunga neetoni ze-500000) okubangelwa ukunqongophala kwamandla e-hydropower e-Yunnan, eSichuan nakwezinye iindawo akuzange kuqondwe ngokupheleleyo, ngelixa amandla okuvelisa esanda kufakwa (iitoni ezingama-600000) kwiindawo ezinexabiso eliphantsi njenge-Inner Mongolia kunye ne-Xinjiang ingene kwixesha lokuvelisa. Umthamo wokusebenza we-aluminiyam we-electrolytic wasekhaya unyuke waya kwi-42 yezigidi zeetoni, ufikelele kwimbali ephezulu. Nangona ukusetyenziswa kwe-aluminiyam yasekhaya kunyuke nge-2.3% ngonyaka ngoJanuwari nangoFebruwari, ikhonkco lezindlu ezibuthathaka (kunye nokuncipha kwe-10% ngonyaka kwindawo egqityiweyo yokwakhiwa kwezindlu zorhwebo) kunye nokwehla kokuthunyelwa kwempahla yasekhaya (-8% unyaka nonyaka ngoJanuwari nangoFebruwari) kuye kwakhokelela ekubuyiseleni okubalulekileyo kwi-inventory. Kuyaphawuleka ukuba izinga lokukhula kotyalo-mali lweziseko ezingundoqo zasekhaya ngo-Matshi ligqithise ulindelo (+ 12,5% ngonyaka-ngonyaka ngoJanuwari nangoFebruwari), kunye nokugcinwa kwangaphambili kwezinye iiprojekthi zeziseko ezingundoqo zakhuthaza i-15% ngenyanga ngokunyuka kwenyanga kwii-odolo zeprofayili ye-aluminium, echaza ukomelela kwe-short-term rebound kwi-inventory ye-aluminium yaseShanghai.
Ngokwembono yeendleko, umgca weendleko opheleleyo we-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic yasekhaya uhlala uzinzile kwi-16500 yuan/toni, kunye namaxabiso e-anode abhakiwe kwangaphambili agcina amaxabiso aphezulu angama-4300 yuan/toni kunye ne-alumina ehla kancinane ukuya kuma-2600 yuan/toni. Ngokweendleko zombane, amashishini omzi-mveliso we-Inner Mongolia acuthe amaxabiso ombane ngentlawulo yombane oluhlaza, okonga ngaphezulu kwe-200 yeeyuan ngetoni yombane we-aluminiyam. Nangona kunjalo, ukunqongophala kwamandla e-hydropower e-Yunnan kuye kwakhokelela ekunyuseni kwe-10% kumaxabiso ombane kumashishini asekhaya e-aluminium, ukwandisa ukuhlukana kwamandla engingqi ngenxa yokungafani kweendleko.
Ngokumalunga neempawu zemali, emva kokuba intlanganiso yenzala ye-Federal Reserve kaMatshi ikhuphe umqondiso we-dovish, i-index yeedola zase-US yawela kwi-104.5, inikezela ngenkxaso yexabiso le-aluminium ye-LME, kodwa ukomelezwa kwe-yuan yaseTshayina (i-CFETS index yanyuka ukuya kwi-105.3) icinezele amandla okuba i-aluminium yaseShanghai ilandele.
Xa sithetha ngobuchwephesha, i20800 yuan/toni linqanaba elibalulekileyo lokumelana neShanghai Aluminium. Ukuba inokwaphulwa ngokufanelekileyo, inokuqalisa impembelelo kwi-21000 yuan/ton; Ngokuchasene noko, ukuba ukuthengiswa kwe-real estate akuphumeleli ukuphindaphinda, uxinzelelo olusezantsi luya kunyuka kakhulu.
Ixesha lokuposa: Mar-25-2025