Eyangokuimboni ye-aluminiumingenile kwindlela entsha "yokuqina kokunikezelwa kwempahla + ukuqina kwemfuno", kwaye ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuxhaswa ziziseko eziqinileyo. UMorgan Stanley uqikelela ukuba amaxabiso e-aluminium aya kufikelela kwi-$3250/ton kwikota yesibini ka-2026, kunye nengqiqo ephambili ejikeleza kwiingenelo ezimbini zomsantsa wokunikezelwa kwempahla kunye nemfuno kunye nokusingqongileyo okukhulu.
Icala lokubonelela: Ukwandiswa komthamo kunqongophele, ukuthamba kuyaqhubeka nokuhla
Umthamo wemveliso ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic yaseTshayina ufikelele kumda weetoni ezingama-45 ezigidi, kunye nomthamo wokusebenza weetoni ezingama-43.897 ezigidi ngo-2025 kunye nesantya sokusetyenziswa se-97.55%, phantse ngokupheleleyo, kunye neetoni ezimalunga nesigidi esinye kuphela zesithuba esitsha esongeziweyo.
Ukukhula kwamandla emveliso phesheya kolwandle kubuthathaka, kunye nesantya sokukhula sonyaka esiphakathi se-1.5% kuphela ukusuka ngo-2025 ukuya ku-2027. IYurophu iyaqhubeka nokunciphisa imveliso ngenxa yamaxabiso aphezulu ombane, ngelixa uMntla Melika unqongophele ekwandeni ngenxa yokhuphiswano lwamandla kumaziko edatha e-AI. Yi-Indonesia ne-Middle East kuphela ezinokwanda okuncinci kodwa zithintelwe ziziseko zophuhliso.
Utshintsho oluluhlaza kunye nokunyuka kweendleko zombane kuye kwanyusa umda weshishini, kwandisa umlinganiselo wombane oluhlaza eTshayina kwaye kwaphunyezwa irhafu yekhabhoni kwiManyano yaseYurophu, nto leyo ecinezela ngakumbi indawo yokuhlala yamandla emveliso abiza kakhulu.
Icala lemfuno: Amasimi akhulayo ayaqhuma, umthamo uwonke ukhula ngokuthe chu
Izinga lokukhula eliphakathi lonyaka lemfuno ye-aluminium yehlabathi yi-2% -3%, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwiitoni ezingama-770-78 ezigidi ngo-2026. Iindawo ezintsha ezifana nezithuthi zamandla ezintsha, ukugcinwa kwamandla e-photovoltaic, kunye namaziko edatha e-AI ziye zaba ngamandla aphambili okuqhuba.
Ukwanda kwezinga lokungena kwezithuthi zamandla ezintsha kuqhubele phambili ukukhula kokusetyenziswa kwe-aluminium ngesithuthi ngasinye (ngaphezulu kwama-30% kunoko kwezithuthi zepetroli), kwaye ukunyuka konyaka komthamo ofakelweyo we-photovoltaic ngaphezulu kwama-20% kuye kwaxhasa imfuno ye-aluminium. Imfuno kwicandelo lezixhobo zamandla kunye nokupakisha iye yalandela ngokuthe chu.
Umlinganiselo wokudibanisa ngokuthe ngqo i-aluminium namanzi unyuswe waya kuthi ga kwi-90%, nto leyo enciphisa ukunikezelwa kwee-ingots ze-aluminium ezikwisitokhwe kwaye ibangela ukuba imeko yemarike ibe nzima ngakumbi.
Imiqondiso yeMacro kunye neyemarike: ii-resonances ezininzi ezintle
Ulindelo lokuncitshiswa kwenzala kwihlabathi liphela lucacile, kwaye phantsi komkhwa wedola yaseMelika ebuthathaka, amaxabiso e-aluminium abizwa ngeedola zaseMelika anenkxaso yendalo enyukayo.
Imfuno yabatyali-mali yezinto eziphathekayo iyanda, kwaye iintsimbi ezingenayo i-ferrous, njengokhetho lokulwa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokwabiwa kwee-asethi ezahlukeneyo, zitsala imali engenayo.
Umlinganiselo wexabiso lekopolo/le-aluminiyam uphezulu kuluhlu lwakutshanje, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba kukho uphawu olubalulekileyo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-aluminiyam.
Iindlela zekamva kwiShishini: Ukuqaqambisa amathuba olwakhiwo
Umsantsa wemfuno yokubonelela ngeenkonzo uya ukhula kancinci kancinci, kwaye uMorgan Stanley uqikelela ukuba ukunqongophala kokubonelela ngeenkonzo kuya kubonakala ukususela ngo-2026 ukuya phambili, kunye neempahla zehlabathi jikelele ezikwizinga eliphantsi ngokwembali, nto leyo eyandisa ngakumbi ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso.
Ukwahluka kwemimandla kuyanda, umsantsa wemfuno yokubonelela eTshayina uyanda minyaka le, kwaye ukuxhomekeka ekuthengisweni kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kuyanda, nto leyo eyenza ukuhamba korhwebo "lwee-ingots ze-aluminium ezingaphezulu kwamanye amazwe → eTshayina".
Inzuzo yemizi-mveliso igxile kumashishini aphambili anezixhobo zamandla aluhlaza kunye neenzuzo zeendleko zamandla, ngelixa amandla emveliso etshintshela kwiindawo ezingabizi kakhulu ezifana ne-Indonesia kunye ne-Middle East, kodwa inkqubela phambili icotha kunokuba bekulindelwe.
Ixesha leposi: Disemba-19-2025