I-London Metal Exchange (LME) i-aluminium inventory iyaqhubeka iphantsi, ihla ukuya kwiitoni ze-322000 ukususela ngo-Juni 17, ibetha i-low low ukususela ngo-2022 kunye nokwehla okubukhali kwe-75% ukusuka kwincopho kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo. Emva kwale datha ngumdlalo onzulu wokubonelela kunye nomzekelo wemfuno kwimarike ye-aluminium: i-premium yendawo ye-aluminium yeenyanga ezintathu ishintshile ukusuka kwisaphulelo se-$ 42 / toni ngo-Apreli ukuya kwi-premium, kwaye indleko yokwandiswa kobusuku inyuke ukuya kwi-$ 12.3 / ton, ebonisa uxinzelelo lwezikhundla ezide zokukhama izikhundla.
Ingxaki yoluhlu lwempahla: ukudodobala koqoqosho oludityaniswe nemidlalo ye-geopolitical
Ukususela ngoJuni, kuphela iitoni ezili-150 zeerisithi ze-warehouse ezibhalisiweyo kwi-LME aluminiyam inventory, kunye nesibini kwisithathu se-inventory ekhoyo yi-aluminiyam yaseRashiya eye yavalwa yi-US ne-UK. I-China yakhawulezisa ukufunxwa kweetoni ze-741000 ze-aluminium yaseRashiya ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya ku-Epreli, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka we-48%. Nangona kunjalo, amandla okuvelisa i-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic yasekhaya iye yasondela kumgaqo-nkqubo we-45 yezigidi zeetoni, kwaye uluhlu lwempahla yexesha elidlulileyo luye lwehla ngo-synchronously ukuya kwiinyanga ezili-16 eziphantsi. Ngaphantsi koxinzelelo lonikezelo kunye nemfuno, ubungakanani bemalike ye-aluminiyam bubonisa umkhwa "wokubulala kabini".
Uhlenga-hlengiso loRhwebo: Iiguquguquki ezifihlakeleyo ekuHambeni kweNkunkuma yeAluminiyam
Ipateni yorhwebo lwehlabathi lwe-aluminiyam elahliweyo iphantsi kotshintsho olukhulu: i-United States isebenzisa ukukhululelwa kwirhafu ukutsala ukubuyiswa kwe-aluminiyam elahliweyo, enefuthe kubume boshishino lwe-aluminiyam esetyenzisiweyo yaseTshayina. Idatha ibonisa ukuba imveliso ye-aluminiyam ehlaziyiweyo yaseChina iya kufikelela kwi-10.5 yezigidi zeetoni kwi-2024, ibalwa kwi-20% yokunikezelwa kwe-aluminium iyonke. Nangona kunjalo, ukuqiniswa kwezithintelo zokungeniswa kwempahla kumazwe akuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia kuye kwanyanzela iinkampani zaseTshayina ukuba ziseke iifektri eMalaysia naseThailand ukuze ziqhubele phambili inkunkuma ekumgangatho ophantsi. Kwangaxeshanye, iManyano yaseYurophu ikhuthaza ukukwazi ukwaneliseka kwi-aluminiyam ye-scrap yokuphinda isetyenziswe, kwaye umlinganiselo waseJapan we-aluminiyam esetyenzisiweyo ufikelele kwi-100%. Ukhuphiswano lwehlabathi lwe-aluminiyam enekhabhoni ephantsi lusiya lusiba nzima.
Utshintsho kushishino: ukuhambelana kwemfuno ephezulu kunye nemiqobo yomgaqo-nkqubo
Ukuguqulwa kolwakhiwo kuShishino lweAluminiyam yaseChina luyakhawuleza: Ngo-2024, umyinge weemveliso ezongeziweyo zexabiso eliphezulu ezifana nokuhamba ngenqwelomoya.iipleyiti aluminiyamkunye neefoil zebhetri zamandla kwimveliso ye-aluminiyam ye-42 yezigidi zeetoni ziya kwanda ukuya kuma-35%. Ubungakanani bealuminiyam esetyenziswa kwizithuthi zamandla amatsha iye yatsiba ukusuka kwi-3% ngo-2020 ukuya kwi-12%, ibe yeyona njini yokukhula kwemfuno. Nangona kunjalo, ukuxhomekeka kwangaphandle kwe-bauxite kudlula i-70%, isilingi yomthamo we-aluminium ye-electrolytic ilinganiselwe, kwaye idibene noxinzelelo lwe-EU Carbon Border Tax (CBAM), ukwandiswa kweshishini kujongene nemiqobo emininzi.
Imbonakalo yekamva: Imingeni yesakhiwo ngexesha loluhlu lwezinto eziphantsi
Uhlalutyo lucebisa ukuba indlela yangoku ye-LME yokuziphatha yokucudisa i-aluminiyam yodlule intelekelelo yexesha elifutshane kwaye yavela kuvavanyo loxinzelelo lokomelela kwetsheyini lonikezelo lwe-aluminiyam yehlabathi. Ukuba imeko yoluhlu lwempahla ephantsi iyaqhubeka, imarike inokutshintsha ukusuka “kwintsalela ye-cyclical” ukuya “kunqongophala kolwakhiwo”. Amashishini kufuneka aqaphele impembelelo edibeneyo yomngcipheko we-geopolitical, utshintsho lomgaqo-nkqubo worhwebo, kunye nemithintelo yekhono, kunye nokuphumelela kwi-teknoloji ye-aluminiyam ehlaziyiweyo kunye nokufakwa kwendawo yezixhobo eziphezulu kunokuba ngundoqo wokuqhawula.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jun-26-2025