Ⅰ. Ukuphela kwemveliso: "I-paradox yokwandisa" ye-alumina kunye ne-electrolytic aluminium
1. I-Alumina: Ingxaki yeBanjwa lokuKhula okuPhezulu kunye ne-Inventory ephezulu
Ngokutsho kwedatha evela kwi-National Bureau of Statistics, imveliso ye-alumina yaseChina yafikelela kwi-7.475 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-Matshi 2025 (+ 10.3% ngonyaka-ngonyaka), kunye nemveliso ye-22.596 yezigidi zeetoni kwikota yokuqala (+ 12.0% ngonyaka-ngonyaka). Ngaphandle kokukhula okuqhubekayo kwemveliso, intengiso iye yawela kumjikelo okhohlakeleyo "wokunyusa imveliso ngaphandle kokunyuswa kwengeniso"
Unikezelo olugqithisileyo luyanda:I-inventri ye-alumina yasekhaya ye-alumina yentlalo idlule i-3.958 yezigidi zeetoni, idibene noxinzelelo oluvela ekuvuleni kwefestile yokungenisa (ixabiso le-FOB yase-Australia liwele kwi-$ 373 / toni), kwaye ixabiso lendawo liye lawela ngaphantsi komgca weendleko zemali kwingingqi ye-Shanxi (3250 yuan / ton).
Uxinzelelo lweendleko zokunciphisa imveliso:Izityalo ze-Alumina e-Henan, e-Guizhou nakweminye imimandla ziye zaqalisa ukugcinwa ngenxa yokulahlekelwa kwemali, okubangelwa yi-2.85% ngenyanga yokunciphisa umthamo wokusebenza ukuya kwi-88.6 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka ngo-Matshi. Nangona kunjalo, ukukhutshwa kwe-1 yezigidi zeetoni zomthamo omtsha wemveliso e-Indonesia kuye kwandise ukugqithiswa kwehlabathi.
2. I-aluminium ye-Electrolytic: "ibhalansi eqinile" phantsi kwesilingi yamandla okuvelisa
Imveliso ye-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic ngo-Matshi yayiyi-3.746 yezigidi zeetoni (+ 4.4% ngonyaka-ngonyaka), kunye nemveliso ekhulayo kwikota yokuqala yayiyi-11.066 yezigidi zeetoni (+ 3.2% ngonyaka-ngonyaka). Ngaphandle kokuqaliswa kwemveliso kummandla osemzantsi-ntshona (kunye noYunnan Hongtai egcina umthamo opheleleyo wemveliso yeetoni ezisisi-1.5 sezigidi), ukubonelela nge-elasticity kunyanzeliswa yimigaqo-nkqubo.
Utshintsho lwesakhono luyongamela:I-Sichuan, i-Guangxi kunye neminye imimandla iphinda iqalise imveliso ikakhulu ngokutshintshwa komthamo, ngelixa i-Baotou Aluminium yakudala isakhono semveliso iye yarhoxiswa ukukhawulelana nokunyuka, okukhokelela ekukhuleni okulinganiselweyo kwe-net.
Ukuphela koluhlu lwempahla kukhawuleza:Ekuqaleni kuka-Epreli, uluhlu lwentlalo lwe-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic yehla ukuya kwiitoni ze-744000 (unyaka-ngonyaka -i-138000 yeetoni), kunye noluhlu lwe-LME lwawa lwabuyela kwiitoni ze-459000, ezixhasa ukomelela kwamaxabiso e-aluminium.
Ⅱ. Kwicala lemfuno: "ukukrazulwa kwesakhiwo" phakathi kweengoma zemveli kunye nezivelayo
1. Intsimi yesiNtu: Ukubulala kabini ulwakhiwo kunye nokuthumela ngaphandle
Ikhonkco lezindlu nomhlaba liyaqhubeka nokuncipha:ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuMatshi, isalathiso sendawo yokuthengisa yezindlu zorhwebo kwindawo "ebandayo", izinga lokwakhiwa kweprofayili yokwakha lalingama-61% kuphela, kwaye izinga lokukhula kwemveliso ye-aluminium (1.3%) yayingaphantsi kakhulu kunomlinganiselo wokukhula kwe-electrolytic aluminium supply.
Ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kujongene nohlaselo lwamaxabiso:Iintlawulo ze-aluminium zase-US kwi-China ziye zanyuka ukusuka kwi-104% ukuya kwi-145%, kunye nokuthunyelwa kwe-aluminium ngaphandle kweJanuwari nangoFebruwari phantsi kwe-4.5% ngonyaka. Iinkampani zijikela kurhwebo lwezothutho lwase-Asia-mpuma njengendawo ekhuselekileyo.
2. Amandla amatsha kunye nemveliso ephezulu: imfuno yeenjini ezintsha
Ukukhula okugqabhukileyo kweingxubevange aluminiyam:Ngo-Matshi, ukuveliswa kwe-aluminium alloy kwafikelela kwi-1.655 yezigidi zeetoni (ngonyaka-ngonyaka + 16.2%), eqhutywa yi-lightweight yeenqwelo zamandla amatsha (i-accelerated aluminium substitution ye-aluminium) kunye nemfuno yeefreyimu ze-photovoltaic (ezizuza kumgaqo-nkqubo omtsha wexabiso lombane wasekhaya).
Ukuphumelela kwi-localization yezixhobo ze-aluminium eziphezulu: I-Dongqing Special Materials ulingo oluphumeleleyo luvelise i-magnesium welding wire blanks ephezulu, i-odolo ye-aluminiyam ye-alloy ye-Longi Corporation yanda ngama-35% unyaka nonyaka, kunye nokufakwa endaweni yokungenisa kwiindawo eziphezulu zesicelo.
Ⅲ.Ixabiso kunye neXabiso: Ukuwa kweAlumina vs. Ukwandiswa kweNzuzo yeAluminiyam ye-Electrolytic
1. Ukwakhiwa kwakhona kwegophe yeendleko
I-aluminiyam oxide iwele 'kwi-Death spiral':amaxabiso bauxite zasekhaya ziye zakhulula (ezantsi 5% ngenyanga ngenyanga kummandla Jin Yu), iindleko izinto ezincedisayo ezifana nesoda caustic namalahle ziye zehla, kunye neendleko kushishino ubunzima ziye zehla ukuya 3158 yuan/toni, kodwa amaxabiso ehle ngokukhawuleza ngakumbi (amaxabiso indawo Shanxi baye bawela ngaphantsi kwe-3000 yuan/ton).
Ukwandiswa komda wenzuzo ye-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic:Ixabiso lexabiso le-alumina liye lehla laya kuma-40% (55% ngo-2024), inzuzo enesisindo soshishino lwe-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic ifikelele kwi-3700 ye-yuan / toni, kunye ne-gross profit margin ye-Yunnan hydropower advantage enterprises (efana ne-Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd.) idlule i-25%.
2. Ukunyuka kokwahluka kwamaxabiso
I-alumina oscillation iphuma phantsi:Impembelelo yemithombo phesheya-amaxabiso aphantsi (Indonesia yongeza 6.5 yezigidi zeetoni umthamo imveliso ukuba kutyalwe) kunye nokukhululwa umthamo wemveliso entsha yasekhaya (iprojekthi Guangxi kaThixo 2 million ton ifikelela kwimveliso epheleleyo ngo-Epreli) ziye zacinezela isithuba rebound, kwaye uluhlu olulindelekileyo yokusebenza kwikota yesibini yi 2800-3200 yuan/toni.
Ukomelela okuphezulu kwe-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic:Amaxabiso e-aluminium e-LME ahlala ezinzileyo kuluhlu lwe-2450-2550 yeedola zase-US / itoni, kunye nekhontrakthi ephambili ye-aluminium yase-Shanghai ixhaswa yi-inventory ephantsi kunye nolindelo lomgaqo-nkqubo (inkxaso-mali "yokuvuselela izixhobo" zasekhaya), kunye nethagethi yexesha elifutshane le-20500 yuan / ton.
Ⅳ. URhwebo lwaMazwe ngaMazwe kunye noMgaqo-nkqubo: URhafu 'oMkhombe oMvuza' kunye noGuqulo kuHlaza
1. Ikhonkco lempembelelo yomdlalo werhafu wase-China wase-US
Uhlengahlengiso lwekhonkco loshishino lweemoto:I-United States inyanzelise umrhumo wama-25% kwiimoto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle, inyanzela umzi-mveliso waseMexico waseTesla ukuba uhlehlise ukuvelisa. Umyinge we-aluminiyam yaseTshayina ethunyelwa e-United States yehle yaya kutsho kwi-5% (iinkampani ezifana ne-Wan'an Technology zikhawulezisa ukutshintsha kwazo kwimarike yaseYurophu).
Iqhinga loTshintsho lwaseRusal:Njengoko ixesha loxolelo lwe-EU lwe-Rusal lisondela, i-Rusal iyakukhawulezisa ukudluliselwa kwayo kwiindawo zokugcina iimpahla zase-Asia (ithumela ngaphandle kwe-154000 yeetoni ze-alumina eRashiya ngoMatshi), kwaye uluhlu lwe-LME lwe-Rusal lunyuke lwaya kwi-82%.
2. Ukungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni kuqhuba ukuphuculwa kwamashishini
Inkqubo yokulingwa yesatifikethi se-carbon footprint iye yasungulwa:Isatifikethi se-Baise electrolytic aluminiyam ye-aluminiyam ye-carbon labeling iphunyeziwe, kwaye ithagethi yomthamo wokuvelisa i-aluminiyam esetyenzisiweyo yandiswe ukuya kwi-6 yezigidi zeetoni ngonyaka (kunye neprimiyamu ye-Alcoa ye-alcoa ephantsi ye-aluminium efikelela kwi-15%).
Umdlalo wexabiso lombane:Amaxabiso erhasi yendalo yaseYurophu abuyele kwi-35 ye-euro / i-megawatt iyure, kwaye ukuqaliswa kwakhona kwemveliso kwi-trimet Aluminium yaseJamani kwifektri ilibazisekile. Ukuzinza kombane wamanzi wasekhaya eYunnan kuye kwaba yindawo yokubonelela ngomngcipheko.
Ⅴ. Umbono ngekamva: Umdlalo ombini wentsalela kunye nenguqu
1. I-Alumina: Ukuchithwa okuqhutywa yilahleko, kugxininise ekunciphiseni ukuveliswa kwemveliso
Ukuba ixabiso liyaqhubeka ukuba ngaphantsi kwe-3000 yuan/toni, isikali sokunciphisa imveliso kwikota yesibini singafikelela kwi-2 yezigidi zeetoni/ngonyaka, kodwa umthamo omtsha wemveliso wase-Indonesia unokuphelisa ukuthotywa kwesiphumo.
Ingcebiso yeqhinga: Tshixa iindleko zexesha elide zempahla ekrwada ngamaxabiso aphezulu kwaye ubeke ingqalelo kwiChina Aluminium Corporation (601600. SH), enemigodi yayo.
2. I-aluminium ye-Electrolytic: amathuba okwakhiwa phantsi kwe-inventory ephantsi kunye nezabelo zomgaqo-nkqubo
Ukunyuka kwaminyaka yonke kwemfuno yamandla amatsha (i-photovoltaic + izithuthi zamandla amatsha) yi-800000 ukuya kwi-1 yezigidi zeetoni, ukulungisa ukuhla kwemimandla yendabuko. Iziko lexabiso le-aluminium kulindeleke ukuba ligcine i-19500 ukuya kwi-21500 yuan / ton.
Ixesha lokuposa: Apr-22-2025