NgoMeyi 27, 2025, iKomishoni yoLawulo lwezoKhuseleko yaseTshayina yavuma ngokusemthethweni ukubhaliswa kweingxubevange aluminiyamikamva kunye nokhetho kwi-Shanghai Futures Exchange, ephawula imveliso yokuqala yehlabathi yekamva nge-aluminiyam ehlaziyiweyo njengondoqo wayo wokungena kwimarike yaseTshayina. Lo mlinganiso awuyi kumisa kuphela indlela yokumisela amaxabiso kwitsheyini yoshishino lwe-aluminium, kodwa unokuba sisixhobo esiphambili sezemali ukukhuthaza ukuguqulwa kwekhabhoni ephantsi kushishino lwe-aluminiyam yehlabathi.
Impembelelo enzulu kwitsheyini yoshishino lwe-aluminium
Impumelelo kuMgangatho woShishino lweAluminiyam eRecycled
Njengomvelisi omkhulu wehlabathi kunye nomthengi we-aluminium ephosiweyo (ngemveliso ye-6.2 yezigidi zeetoni kunye nokusetyenziswa kwe-6.73 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2024), imboni ye-aluminiyam esetyenzisiweyo yaseChina kudala ijongene nentlungu yokubhideka kwendlela yokubeka amaxabiso. UCheng Huawei, umphathi weOfisi kaNobhala weGuangdong Hongjin New Materials Group, wachaza ukuba abathengi abasezantsi banemfuno eqinileyo yeeodolo zokutshixa amaxabiso, kodwa ngenxa yokunqongophala kweentlobo zexesha elizayo le-aluminiyam ehlaziyiweyo, amashishini anokuxhomekeka kuphela kwikamva eliphambili le-aluminiyam okanye iodolo yangaphambili yokutshixa amaxabiso, okukhokelela kumngcipheko wokutenxa kwamaxabiso. Ukuqaliswa kwe-aluminium i-alloy futures kuya kuzalisa ngokuthe ngqo esi sikhewu, kufezekise unxibelelwano lwexabiso phakathi kwe-aluminiyam ehlaziyiweyo kunye ne-aluminiyam yokuqala, kunye nokukhuthaza inkqubo yokulinganisa yoshishino.
Ukuveliswa kwezinto ezintsha kwiZixhobo zoLawulo loMngcipheko
Uluhlu lwexesha elizayo kunye nezixhobo zokhetho lubonelela ngeendlela ezintsha zoshishino lwe-aluminiyam yoshishino lwesixokelelwano sokuthintela ukuhla kwamaxabiso. Ukuthatha amashishini e-aluminiyam asetyenzisiweyo njengomzekelo, umyinge we-aluminiyam ye-scrap kwiindleko zabo zempahla ekrwada idlula i-70%, kwaye uluhlu lokuguquguquka kwamaxabiso e-aluminiyam ye-scrap luhlala luphezulu kune-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic. Ngemarike yexesha elizayo, iinkampani zinokufezekisa:
Hedging: Tshixa iindleko zokuthengwa kwempahla ekrwada kunye namaxabiso entengiso yemveliso ukuthintela umngcipheko wokuguquguquka kwexabiso lentsimbi.
Ulawulo loluhlu lwempahla: Ukusebenzisa iirisithi zokugcina iimpahla zexesha elizayo ukunciphisa uxinzelelo lwempahla yexesha elingekhoyo kunye nokwandisa amajelo okuthengisa.
Inkxaso-mali entsha: Ukusebenzisa iirisithi zexesha elizayo njengesibambiso ukufumana inkxaso-mali enexabiso eliphantsi kunye nokwandisa isixokelelwano esiyinkunzi.
I-accelerator yokuguqulwa kwekhabhoni ephantsi
Ukuphosa i-alloys ye-aluminiyam ikakhulu isebenzisa i-aluminiyam e-scrap njengempahla ekrwada, kwaye ukuvelisa i-1 toni ye-aluminium esetyenzisiweyo kunokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni ngaphezu kwe-95%, eyona ndlela ingundoqo yokuguqulwa kwekhabhoni ephantsi kushishino lwe-aluminiyam yehlabathi. Wang Jian, uSekela Mongameli we-China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, ugxininise ukuba izixhobo zexesha elizayo ziya kukhokela i-capital ukuqokelela kushishino lwe-aluminium eluhlaza, kunye nokukhawulezisa inguqu yoshishino lwekhabhoni ephantsi ngekhabhoni yothumelo “yexabiso lokwabiwa kwezixhobo zoncedo lokuphucula umgangatho”.
Ukwakhiwa ngokutsha kwePhatheni yeMarike yeFutures
1. Idabi lamandla exabiso
Wang Rong, umncedisi womlawuli weGuotai Junan Futures Research Institute, uqikelela ukuba uluhlu lwexesha elizayo lwe-aluminium alloy luza kucela umngeni kwixabiso lexabiso lehlabathi leLondon Metal Exchange (LME) kumaxabiso e-aluminium.
Isizathu kukuba:
Imveliso ye-aluminiyam esetyenzisiweyo yaseTshayina yenza i-57% yelizwe lonke, kwaye iimveliso zexesha elizayo zibonisa ngokuthe ngqo imfuno kwimarike yaseAsia.
Ukwenziwa kwezinto ezintsha kuyilo lwemveliso yokuhanjiswa: Inkqubo ecetywayo yokuhanjiswa kabini "ye-aluminiyam esetyenzisiweyo + i-aluminium alloy bars" kwixesha langaphambili ihambelana ngakumbi neemfuno zangempela zamashishini aseAsia.
Inkxaso yolwahlulo lomgaqo-nkqubo: Phantsi kweenjongo zaseTshayina “ezimbini zekhabhoni”, iimveliso ze-aluminiyam eluhlaza ziyakonwabela inkuthazo yerhafu, ziphucula igunya lamaxabiso exesha elizayo.
2. Utshintsho lwesakhiwo sabathathi-nxaxheba
Kulindeleke ukuba imakethi yexesha elizayo ibonise amaqela amathathu amakhulu athatha inxaxheba:
Amashishini esixokelelwano semizi-mveliso: izinyibilikisi ze-aluminiyam, amashishini okulungisa ialuminiyam esetyenzisiweyo, abavelisi bezixhobo zemoto, njl.njl., ngomlinganiselo olindelekileyo ongaphezu kwama-60%.
Amaziko otyalo-mali: Iingxowa-mali ze-CTA, iingxowa-mali ze-commodity hedge, zisebenzisa ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso ukuvelisa imbuyekezo.
Abarhwebi abawela imida: Ngokudibana kwemarike yekamva laseTshayina, iinkampani ezikuMzantsi-mpuma weAsia, kuMbindi Mpuma, kunye neminye imimandla esebenzisa ialuminiyam ehlaziyiweyo iya kuthatha inxaxheba kwi-arbitrage.
Umsebenzi ophuculweyo wokufunyanwa kwexabiso
Imarike yendawo yangoku yecastialloys aluminiyamayinamaxabiso adityanisiweyo, umahluko wamaxabiso engingqi udla ngokufikelela kuma-500 yuan/toni. Emva kokuba imarike yekamva idwelisiwe, ukubekwa elubala kwamaxabiso kuya kuphuculwa ngokubonakalayo ngokufakwa kwebhidi kunye neendlela zokuhanjiswa kweenkonzo. Ngokusekwe kumava oluhlu lwe-rebar lwekamva, kulindeleke ukuba amaxabiso exesha elizayo abe luphawu lomgangatho wamaxabiso ngaphezulu kwe-80% yorhwebo lwe-aluminiyam olusetyenzisiweyo lwelizwe kwiminyaka emi-3.
Ukubaluleka kobuchule kunye nokuqonda kweshishini
Iparadigm entsha yokukhonza uqoqosho lokwenyani
Njengoko kuchaziwe kwinqaku elidlulileyo, i-funny aluminium alloy futures iya kubambelela kwindawo "yokusebenzela uphuhliso oluluhlaza" kwaye inyanzelise ukuphuculwa kwamashishini ngokumisela imigangatho engqongqo yomgangatho wemveliso yokuhanjiswa (njengomxholo wokungcola kunye neempawu zomatshini). Oku kuhambelana neemfuno zekhabhoni yeRhafu yeCarbon Border yeManyano yaseYurophu (i-CBAM) yeemveliso ze-aluminiyam ezithengwa kumazwe angaphandle, inceda ishishini laseTshayina le-aluminiyam liphucule ukhuphiswano lwamazwe ngamazwe.
Ukuhlengahlengisa i-Global Aluminium Market Landscape
Ukunyuka koshishino lwe-aluminiyam esetyenzisiweyo yaseTshayina kubhala ngokutsha ubonelelo lwe-aluminiyam yehlabathi kunye nemephu yemfuno. Ngo-2024, umlinganiselo wemveliso ye-aluminium esetyenzisiweyo e-China ukuya kwi-aluminium yokuqala ifikelele kwi-22%, ngelixa i-avareji yehlabathi i-15% kuphela. Ukuphuculwa kwezixhobo zexesha elizayo kuya kukhawulezisa le nkqubo, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ngo-2030, inxalenye yemveliso ye-aluminium esetyenzisiweyo e-China iya kudlula i-35%, iqhube ngakumbi i-overseas high carbon aluminium market space.
Isityhilelo sokuQalwa kokuQala okuNtsha
Ukuqaliswa kwe-aluminiyam ye-alloy futures ibonelele ngemodeli yorhwebo lwexesha elizayo lwezinye iindidi zentsimbi ezisetyenzisiweyo, ezifana nekopolo ephinda isetyenzisiwe kunye nezinc. Ingcinga engundoqo kukubandakanya izixhobo “zemigodi yasezidolophini” kwinkqubo yokubeka amaxabiso eemveliso nokukhuthaza uphuhliso loqoqosho olujikelezayo ngokusungula izinto ezintsha zemali.
Lilonke, uluhlu lwexesha elizayo lwe-aluminium alloy kunye neenketho ayisiyonto entsha kuphela kwimakethi ye-derivatives yaseChina ukuze isebenze uqoqosho lokwenyani, kodwa kunye neziseko ezingundoqo zezemali zokuguqulwa kwekhabhoni ephantsi yoshishino lwe-aluminiyam yehlabathi. Ngokwakhiwa kothungelwano lwendawo yokugcina impahla kunye nokuphuculwa kweendlela zentengiselwano ezinqumla imida, olu hlobo lulindeleke ukuba lube lelona ziko lamaxabiso esinyithi angeyontsimbi elinempembelelo kwindawo yexesha lase-Asia, lilungisa ngokutsha ingqiqo yokusasazwa kwexabiso letsheyini yoshishino lwe-aluminiyam yehlabathi.
Ixesha lokuposa: May-29-2025