Kutshanje, imakethi ye-aluminium yamazwe ngamazwe ibingazinzanga ngenxa yeendaba ezikhawulezileyo – i-Iran iqalise uhlaselo kwizityalo ezimbini ze-aluminium e-United Arab Emirates naseBahrain ezinxulumene nemizi-mveliso yomkhosi kunye neenqwelo-moya zase-US. Esi siganeko sikhawuleze saphakamisa inkxalabo malunga nokhuseleko lobonelelo lwe-aluminium kwimakethi, sinyanzela amaxabiso e-aluminium e-LME (London Metal Exchange) eenyanga ezintathu ukuba anyuke ngaphezulu kwe-5%, afikelele kwi-$3492 ngetoni, inqanaba eliphezulu elitsha ukusukela nge-16 kaMatshi. Eli nqaku liza kubonelela ngohlalutyo olunzulu lwemvelaphi yesiganeko, impembelelo yemarike, iindlela zexesha elizayo, kunye namaqhinga okuphendula.
1, Imvelaphi yesiganeko: ukwanda kweengxabano zezopolitiko
Olu phulo lwe-Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps luphendula ngokuthe ngqo kuhlaselo lwangaphambili lwe-Israel kwiziseko zophuhliso zase-Iran, kuquka izityalo zentsimbi, izityalo zamandla, kunye nezakhiwo zenyukliya zabantu. UMphathiswa Wezangaphandle wase-Iran u-Alaghi ukhuphe isilumkiso esicacileyo sokuba i-Israel iza kuhlawula “ixabiso elinzima” ngezenzo zayo. Ngokukhetha ukuhlaselaizityalo zealuminiyaminxulumene ngokusondeleyo ne-United States, i-Iran ngokucacileyo iceba ukufaka uxinzelelo kumanyano lwe-US Israel ngeendlela zoqoqosho, ngelixa ikwaveza ubuthathaka boshishino lwe-aluminium kummandla we-Middle East kwimidlalo ye-geopolitical.
2, Impembelelo yeMarike: Iingxaki zobonelelo zinyusa amaxabiso e-aluminium
Ummandla weMpuma-mpuma, njengeyona ndawo ibalulekileyo yemveliso ye-aluminium kwihlabathi liphela, ubandakanya malunga ne-8% ukuya kwi-9% yemveliso yehlabathi, kwaye uthumela ngaphandle malunga ne-10% yobonelelo lwehlabathi. Olu hlaselo lubangele ngokuthe ngqo umonakalo kwezinye izakhiwo ze-Emirates Global Aluminium Company kunye ne-Bahrain Aluminium Company, nto leyo ebangele ukwehla okukhulu kwamandla emveliso. Ukongeza, umngcipheko onokubakho wokuphazamiseka kwisitishi esiphambili sokuhambisa impahla seStrait of Hormuz uthintele ukungeniswa kwezinto eziluhlaza kunye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweemveliso ezigqityiweyo, nto leyo eyonyusa ngakumbi ulindelo lwemarike lokunqongophala kobonelelo lwe-aluminium.
Uxinzelelo kwicala lokubonelela lubonakala ngokukhawuleza kumaxabiso e-aluminium. Ukusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, amaxabiso e-aluminium e-LME eenyanga ezintathu anyuke malunga ne-10%, kwaye esi siganeko sibe yimbangela yokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-aluminium. Abahlalutyi beCitibank ngaphambili baxele ukuba ukuba imeko yokubonelela iyaqhubeka nokuwohloka, amaxabiso e-aluminium kulindeleke ukuba anyuke aye kwi-$4000 ngetoni, edlula kakhulu inqanaba langoku elimalunga ne-$3300.
3, Imeko yexesha elizayo: Izinto ezininzi ziyathungwa, ukuguquguquka kwexabiso le-aluminiyam kuyaqina
1. Iingozi zezopolitiko ziyaqhubeka: Ubudlelwane obuxineneyo phakathi kwe-Iran, i-Israel, ne-United States kunzima ukubunciphisa kwixesha elifutshane, kwaye naziphi na ezinye izenzo zomkhosi okanye amanyathelo okuziphindezela anokubangela uloyiko lwemarike kwaye anyuse amaxabiso e-aluminium.
2. Imeko yokubuyiselwa kwempahla: Inkqubela phambili yokulungiswa kwezityalo ze-aluminium ezonakeleyo, ukubuyiselwa kwempahla eStrait of Hormuz, kunye nemeko yokusebenza kwezinye izityalo ze-aluminium kuMbindi Mpuma kuya kuchaphazela ngokuthe ngqo uzinzo lokunikezelwa kwe-aluminium kwihlabathi liphela. Ukuba ukubuyiselwa kwempahla kuhamba kancinci, amaxabiso e-aluminium kulindeleke ukuba ahlale ephezulu okanye anyuke ngakumbi.
3. Isantya sokubuyiselwa koqoqosho lwehlabathi sinefuthe elithe ngqo kwimfuno ye-aluminium. Ukuba uqoqosho lwehlabathi luyaqhubeka nokubuyiselwa, ingakumbi ngenxa yokwanda kwemfuno ye-aluminium kumashishini okuvelisa nokwakha, luya kuxhasa ngakumbi amaxabiso e-aluminium. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, ukuba ukubuyela koqoqosho kuyehla, amaxabiso e-aluminium anokujongana noxinzelelo oluphantsi.
4. Umgaqo-nkqubo wemali kunye nolindelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso: Indlela umgaqo-nkqubo wemali kunye nolindelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kumazwe amakhulu kwihlabathi liphela nazo zizinto ezibalulekileyo ezichaphazela amaxabiso e-aluminium. Umgaqo-nkqubo wemali okhululekileyo kunye nolindelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso aphezulu zihlala ziluncedo ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso eemveliso, kuquka ne-aluminium.
4, Icebo lokuphendula: indlela enengqondo, impendulo eguquguqukayo
Njengoko bejongene nokuguquguquka okukhulu kwamaxabiso e-aluminium, abathathi-nxaxheba kwimarike kufuneka bahlale benengqondo kwaye bajonge ngokusondeleyo indlela etshintsha ngayo imeko yezopolitiko, ukubuyiselwa kwezibonelelo, kunye nesantya sokubuyiselwa koqoqosho lwehlabathi. Kumashishini emveliso, ulawulo lomngcipheko lunokuqiniswa ngokuvalela iindleko ngokusebenzisa uthango kunye nezinye iindlela; Kubatyali-mali, kuyimfuneko ukulungisa amaqhinga abo otyalo-mali ngokweemeko zemarike ukuze baphephe ukusukelana ngokungaboniyo kunye nokuthengisa ilahleko.
Ukuhlaselwa kwe-Iran kwizityalo ze-aluminium ezinxulumene ne-US e-UAE naseBahrain ngokungathandabuzekiyo kuye kwabangela ingxolo enkulu kwimarike yehlabathi ye-aluminium. Ukuba amaxabiso e-aluminium angalisebenzisa eli thuba ukuze afumane olunye ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuxhomekeke kwimiphumo edibeneyo yezinto ezininzi. Kwimeko yemarike enzima nehlala itshintsha, ukugcina ingqiqo kunye nokuguquguquka ekuphenduleni kuya kuba ngundoqo kubathathi-nxaxheba kwimarike ukuba bajongane nemingeni kwaye bathathe amathuba.
Ixesha leposi: Epreli-03-2026