Ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yokuguquguquka okwandisiweyo kwimarike yesinyithi yehlabathi, ishishini le-aluminiyam libonise iipropati ezizodwa ezichasene nomjikelo ngenxa yemiqobo engqongqo yomgaqo-nkqubo wesilingi yomthamo waseTshayina kunye nokwandiswa okuqhubekayo kwemfuno entsha yamandla. Ngo-2025, imbonakalo yemarike yesi sityebi sisetyenzwa ngotshintsho olukhulu, kunye nemiqobo yomthamo wemveliso, ukuguqulwa kwamandla, kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo ye-geopolitical edityanisiweyo, ibumba i-paradigm entsha yotyalo-mali phantsi kwe-balance supply-demand balance.
Ukuqina komgaqo-nkqubo kwakha ezantsi, kuqaqambisa isiphumo sesilingi samandla emveliso yaseTshayina.
Ukususela ekuphunyezweni kwe-45 yezigidi zeetoni / ngonyaka umthamo wokuvelisa umgca obomvu kwi-2017, izinga lokusetyenziswa kwe-electrolytic aluminium umthamo wokuvelisa e-China lifikelele kwixabiso elibalulekileyo le-98%. Ukusukela ngoMatshi ka-2025, umthamo wemveliso yasekhaya ufikelele kwi-45.17 yezigidi zeetoni, kwaye iindawo ezityebileyo zamanzi ezifana neYunnan kunye ne-Inner Mongolia ziye zaba yeyona ndawo iphambili yedabi lokutshintsha umthamo. Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba izithintelo zamaxesha onyaka kunikezelo lombane oqhutywa ngamanzi kummandla waseYunnan ziye zavela ngakumbi – ukunciphisa imveliso ngexesha lonyaka elomileyo kunokuchaphazela i-20% yomthamo wokusebenza welizwe. Lo mzekelo wonikezelo "oxhomekeke kwimozulu" ukhokelele kwisithuba semfuno yobonelelo ngeetoni ezisisigidi kwiimarike zasekhaya. Kwangaxeshanye, ukwanda komthamo wemveliso phesheya kolwandle kuyatsala nzima, iYurophu ifumana ukuqaliswa kancinci kwemveliso ngenxa yeendleko eziphezulu zamandla, kwaye amazwe afana neIndiya neRussia ayasokola ukuphelisa ukucutheka konikezelo lwehlabathi olubangelwe sisivalo somthamo waseTshayina.
Utshintsho lwesakhiwo kwicala lemfuno, kunye nomzila omtsha wamandla ube yinjini engundoqo.
Icala lemfuno libonisa inqaku elithi “dual track drive”: kwiinkalo zemveli, imigaqo-nkqubo yaseTshayina yokuvuselela iziseko zophuhliso ikhuthaza ukukhula kwemfuno ye-aluminiyam yeziseko ezitsha ezifana nombane ophezulu kakhulu kunye nomzila kaloliwe. Kulindeleke ukuba umlinganiselo wokusetyenziswa kwe-aluminiyam kwiinkalo ezinxulumeneyo uya kunyuka ukuya kwi-15% ngo-2025; Kwiindawo ezivelayo, ukukhanya kwezithuthi zombane kunye nokwandiswa kwe-photovoltaic efakwe amandla afaka ukunyuswa okuphambili. Idatha ibonisa ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwe-aluminium yezithuthi zamandla amatsha kwimoto nganye kuye kwanda ngamaxesha angama-2-3 xa kuthelekiswa neenqwelo zemveli zamafutha, kwaye izinga lokukhula kwekhompawundi yonyaka yokusetyenziswa kwe-aluminium kwiifreyimu ze-photovoltaic kunye nezibiyeli zifikelele kwi-26%. Okuphawuleka ngakumbi kukuba isiphumo sokutshintshwa kwe-aluminium kutshintsho lwamandla luvela ngokuthe ngcembe, kwaye i-conductivity yayo kunye neenzuzo ezikhaphukhaphu zitshabalalisa isabelo semarike sezinto zobhedu. I-JPMorgan iqikelela ukuba izinga lokukhula kwemfuno ye-aluminiyam yehlabathi liya kufikelela kwi-4% ngo-2025, liphezulu kakhulu kune-2.1% yobhedu.
Ukuqiniswa kwemidlalo yexabiso kunye nokuvela kwamathuba okwakhiwa phakathi koluhlu lwe-oscillations.
Ukusebenza kwangoku kwamaxabiso e-aluminium kubonisa iimpawu ezintathu eziphambili: okokuqala, amaxabiso e-aluminium ye-LME aguquguquka kuluhlu lwe-$ 2700-2900 / toni, ebonisa ukulwa phakathi kokulindela ukunqongophala kokubonelela kunye nokungaqiniseki okukhulu; Okwesibini, ixabiso lasekhaya le-aluminium yaseShanghai lixhaswa ngokulindela izithintelo zemveliso eYunnan, kwaye uphawu lwe-20000 luye lwaba lugxininiso lwemidlalo emfutshane emide; Okwesithathu, ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso e-alumina kuye kwaqina, kwaye ukwanda kwamandla okuvelisa i-bauxite eGuinea kuye kwakha uthango oluchasene nezithintelo zendalo zasekhaya. Imodeli kaMorgan Stanley ibonisa ukuba xa kwenzeka ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kokubonelela, amaxabiso e-aluminium angadlula i-$ 3000 / ton, ngelixa ukudodobala koqoqosho lwehlabathi kunokubetha kwinqanaba leengqondo le-2000 yeedola.
Uphuculo lwematrix yomngcipheko, izinto ezine eziphambili kufuneka zilandelelwe ngokusondeleyo
Amanqaku amane omngcipheko kufuneka alumke xa utyala imali kwishishini le-aluminium.
Olunye luhlenga-hlengiso lomgaqo-nkqubo wemveliso yemveliso yaseTshayina, ekufuneka inike ingqwalasela ekucutheni amandla okuvelisa amandla aphezulu ngorhwebo lokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni.
Okwesibini kukuhla kwamaxabiso ehlabathi jikelele, kwaye ingxaki yerhasi yendalo yaseYurophu kunye notshintsho lombane waseYunnan ukusuka kumanzi ukuya kumaxesha omileyo kunokubangela ukothuka kweendleko.
Okwesithathu, kukho utshintsho kumgaqo-nkqubo wezorhwebo, kwaye kukho umngcipheko wokuphindaphinda iirhafu zase-US kwiimveliso ze-aluminium ezivela eChina.
Okwesine yimpembelelo yokutsala yekhonkco lezindlu, kwaye ukulungiswa kwemarike yezindlu zaseTshayina kunokubangela ukuchithwa kwe-8% -10% kwimfuno ye-aluminium yokwakha.
Ingcebiso yeqhinga: Bamba isiqinisekiso kwaye uphephe imingcipheko yesakhiwo
1. Ujoliso olungqongqo lomthamo wemveliso: Gxininisa kumashishini akhokelayo kwimimandla enexabiso eliphantsi njengeYunnan kunye neXinjiang, apho uzinzo lwamandla emveliso lunqongophele phantsi koxinzelelo lombane ophehlwa ngamanzi.
2. Ukucwangciswa komzila omtsha wamandla: Okuphambili kuya kunikwa ababoneleli bezinto eziphezulu zexabiso elongezelelweyo ezifana neefreyimu ze-photovoltaic kunye neetreyi zebhetri.
3. Ithuba lokuvala: Tshixa iingeniso ezivela kwi-electrolyticukuveliswa kwe-aluminiumngexesha lefestile yokulungiswa kwexabiso le-alumina.
4. Umngcipheko we-geopolitical hedging: Nika ingqalelo kwinkqubela phambili yeeprojekthi ze-Guinea bauxite kwaye uphephe imingcipheko evela kumthombo omnye wokubonelela.
Ukuma kwinqanaba lika-2025, imakethi ye-aluminium iyatshintsha ukusuka kwimveliso yebhayisikile yemveli ukuya kwizinto ezicwangcisiweyo ezivelayo. Iinzame eziqhubekayo zomgaqo-nkqubo wemveliso ye-China kunye nokukhuthazwa okunzulu kwenguqu yamandla ehlabathi jikelele yenze le ntsimbi ikwazi ukumelana nokunyuka kwamaxabiso kwaye yonwabele iprimiyamu yokukhula. Abatyali-mali kufuneka bafumane esona sicwangciso silungileyo solwabiwo lomngcipheko wembuyekezo kulungelelwaniso olunemigangatho emithathu yokuqina komgaqo-nkqubo, ukhuseleko lwamandla, kunye notshintsho lwemfuno.
Ixesha lokuposa: May-20-2025