Umsi ovela kwiStrait of Hormuz ubangela ukusabela okunamandla kweekhemikhali kwikhonkco lemveliso yehlabathi. Kwelinye icala, kukho "i-tsunami yeendleko" ebangelwa kukuphazamiseka kokunikezelwa kwe-aluminium ye-electrolytic, kwaye kwelinye icala, kukho "i-dividend yokutshintshwa" eqhutywa kukuphumelela kwe-oyile ekrwada. Xa amaxabiso e-aluminium enokufikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu lembali le-$4000/ton kwaye ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eoyile kwenza izithuthi zombane zibe yindawo ekhuselekileyo, imakethi yezithuthi zamandla ezintsha ngo-2026 imi kwindawo engazange ibonwe ngaphambili: icala leendleko "liyaphuma" kwaye icala lemfuno "liyabhiyozela". Ngubani oza kuhlawula iindleko ekupheleni kwalo mdlalo?
1. Ukuqhekeka komthambo we-aluminiyam: 'ukuqhawuka kombane' okulibazisekileyo
Ukuba ioyile yeyona nto ibalulekileyo kushishino lwanamhlanje, ngoko ke “i-aluminium” sisixokelelwane esikhaphukhaphu. Okwangoku, ‘umthambo’ wesi sixokelelwane, iStrait of Hormuz, ujongene nomngcipheko wokunqunyulwa ngokupheleleyo.
Isilumkiso sikaWang Yiwen, umhlalutyi weGuangfa Futures, asikokubaxa izinto. Njengoko imeko kuMbindi Mpuma isiya isiba mandundu, amazwe afana ne-United Arab Emirates kunye ne-Iran, axhomekeke kakhulu kwi-alumina engeniswa kwamanye amazwe, anokunyanzelwa ukuba alandele umzekelo aze anciphise imveliso kwiiveki ezimbini ukuya kwezintathu ezizayo. Oku akukokuphela nje kokuvalwa kwexesha elifutshane, kodwa kukwakukuphazamiseka kokunikezelwa kwemveliso okungenakuguqulwa.
Ixesha elibekiweyo: Nje ukuba itanki ye-aluminium ye-electrolytic ivaliwe, umjikelo wokuqalisa kwakhona ungathatha ukuya kuthi ga kwiinyanga ezi-6-12. Oku kuthetha ukuba nokuba kuza uxolo kwiveki ezayo, umsantsa wobonelelo lwe-aluminium kwihlabathi liphela ngo-2026 sele ugqityiwe.
Ubukhulu bomsantsa: Ubonelelo lwaphesheya lunokukhula okungekuhle, kwaye umsantsa wemfuno yobonelelo lwehlabathi unokwanda ngoko nangoko ukuya kwinqanaba lezigidi zeetoni.
Umgangatho wexabiso ugqityiwe: ukuba kuvela amandla amakhulu, ixabiso le-aluminium ye-LME eliyi-$3700~$4000 ngetoni alisasebenzi njengephupha, kodwa liyinyani enokwenzeka kakhulu.
Kwishishini lemveliso, oku akupheleli nje ekubeni yinyathelo ledijithali, kodwa kukwayindleko yokuguqula igolide nesilivere yokwenyani.
2. Izithuthi ezintsha zamandla: iindleko ezithintelwe "yi-aluminium" kunye nemfuno eqhutywa "yioyile"
Kule ngxaki, ishishini lezithuthi zamandla ezintsha libe lelona qela liphikisanayo kakhulu: lixhoba elikhulu lokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-aluminium kwaye lifumana inzuzo enkulu yokunyuka kwamaxabiso eoyile.
1. Icala leendleko: Isithuthi ngasinye siphethe i-760 yuan eyongezelelweyo "yerhafu yemfazwe"
Ukuxakeka kakhulu kukukhanya kwezibane kwiimoto ezintsha zamandla kuzenze zasebenzisa kakhulu i-aluminium. Idatha ibonisa ukuba iimoto ezintsha zamandla ombane ezicocekileyo zisebenzisa umyinge weekhilogram ezingama-200 ze-aluminium kwisithuthi ngasinye, phantse kabini kunezithuthi zepetroli zemveli.I-alloy ye-aluminiyamisasazeke kakhulu kwizakhiwo zomzimba wesithuthi, kwiibhokisi zebhetri, kwiindawo zokulawula amavili, nakwiinkqubo zolawulo lobushushu.
Masibale iakhawunti:
Ukuba kubalwa ngokusekelwe ekunyukeni kwakutshanje kwe-3800 yuan/ton kumaxabiso e-aluminium xa kuthelekiswa nexabiso eliqhelekileyo ngo-2025, kwisithuthi ngasinye sombane esicocekileyo esiveliswayo, ixabiso lezinto ezikrwada zodwa liya kunyuka ngokuthe ngqo malunga ne-760 yuan.
Kwiinkampani zeemoto ezithengisa isigidi seemoto ngonyaka, oku kuthetha iindleko ezongezelelweyo ezimalunga ne-800 yezigidi zeeyuan.
Kwiinkampani zeemoto ezincinci neziphakathi ezinengeniso encinci, le yuan eyi-760 isenokuba yeyona nto yokugqibela ephula umqolo wenkamela, icinezele ngokuthe ngqo indawo yazo yokuhlala esele imxinwa kwaye ide ibangele ingxaki yokuhanjiswa kweenkonzo.
2. Icala lemfuno: "Utshintsho olungenamsebenzi" olubangelwe ngamaxabiso eoyile adlula kwi-100%
Nangona kunjalo, elinye icala lemarike lishushu. Ioyile ekrwada yeBrent idlule kwi-$110 ngebhereli, kwaye amanani atshintshatshintshayo kwizikhululo zepetroli abe zezona bhodi zibalaseleyo zezithuthi zombane.
Iziganeko ziyenzeka ukusuka eManila ukuya eHanoi:
EManila, ePhilippines: UMatthew Dominique Poh, ummeli wentengiso kwivenkile yokuthengisa iBYD, uthe ubungakanani bee-odolo kwiiveki ezimbini ezidlulileyo bulingana nobo benyanga ephelileyo. Abathengi batshintsha iimoto zepetroli ngezikagesi, “utshilo.” Amaxabiso eoyile abiza kakhulu
EHanoi, eVietnam: Ukutyelela kwabathengi kwindawo yokubonisa iVinFast kuphindeke kathathu. Kwiiveki ezintathu emva kokuqhambuka kwengxabano, ivenkile ithengise izithuthi zombane ezingama-250, kunye nokuthengiswa okuqhelekileyo kwezithuthi ezingaphezu kwama-80 ngeveki, okuphindwe kabini kwinqanaba eliqhelekileyo ngo-2025.
UAlbert Park, ingcali yezoqoqosho kwiBhanki yoPhuhliso lwase-Asia, uthethe ngokungqongqo wathi: “Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eoyile bekusoloko kuluncedo ekutshintsheleni kwizithuthi zombane. Kungadala izikhuthazo zoqoqosho ukukhawulezisa olu tshintsho oluluhlaza.
Le yinyaniso emangalisayo yangoku: abathengi bathenga izithuthi zombane kuba besoyika amaxabiso aphezulu epetroli, kodwa iinkampani zeemoto zixhalabile ngexabiso eliphezulu le-aluminium esetyenziswa ekwenzeni izithuthi zombane.
3. Umdlalo Onzulu: Ngaba Ixabiso Liza Kunyuka?
Xa sijongene noxinzelelo oluphindwe kabini “lokunyuka kweendleko” kunye “nokunyuka kwentengiso”, ngaba izithuthi ezintsha zamandla ziya kunyuka ngexabiso? Impendulo isenokungabi ngu-'ewe' okanye 'hayi' nje, kodwa endaweni yoko ibe luhlengahlengiso olwahlukileyo lolwakhiwo.
1. Iimpawu ezikumgangatho ophezulu: Dlulisa iindleko kwaye ugcine amaxabiso aphezulu
Kwiinkampani zeemoto eziphambili ezinee-moats ezinamandla kunye namandla amaxabiso (ezifana neTesla, uthotho lwe-BYD oluphezulu, iimpawu zobunewunewu), ukonyuka kweendleko ze-760 yuan kunokuthathwa ngokupheleleyo ngokulungisa ixabiso lokuthengisa okanye ukwenza ngcono uqwalaselo. Ngokuchasene nemvelaphi yamaxabiso aphezulu eoyile, abathengi abakhathali kakhulu ngexabiso le-yuan ezingamawaka ambalwa kwaye bagxininisa kakhulu kwixabiso lilonke lobunini (TCO) kulo lonke ixesha lobomi. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunokugqunywa yimfuno enamandla.
2. Amandla aphakathi ukuya kwasezantsi kunye namandla amatsha: uxinzelelo lwenzuzo, utshintsho lobomi nokufa
Kwiinkampani zeemoto ezincinci neziphakathi ezigxila ekusebenziseni kakuhle iindleko kwaye zixhomekeke kwinzuzo encinci ukuze zithengise ngokukhawuleza, imeko imbi kakhulu. Azinawo amandla aneleyo okuxoxisana ukuze zicinezele izityalo ze-aluminium ezisezantsi, kwaye azinabuganga bokunyusa amaxabiso ngokulula ukuze zoyikise abathengi abanengxaki yamaxabiso.
Isiphelo A: Ukuncama inzuzo kunye neendleko zokuthwala, okukhokelela ekuwohlokeni kweengxelo zemali kunye nobunzima ekuxhaseni ngemali.
Isiphumo B: Ukunciphisa iindlela kunye nokunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwe-aluminium, kodwa oku kunokuchaphazela ukhuseleko lwezithuthi kunye nomgama wazo, kwaye konakalisa igama lophawu.
Isiphelo C: Kunyanzelekile ukuba kususwe. Olu jikelezo "lwexabiso le-aluminiyam + ixabiso leoyile" lunokukhawulezisa utshintsho kushishino kwaye luphelise iqela labadlali abanamandla okumelana nomngcipheko abuthathaka.
3. 'IMpuma ayikhanyi, iNtshona ikhanya' kuluhlu lwemizi-mveliso
Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba nangona iindleko zokuvelisa izithuthi ezipheleleyo zinyukile, iinkampani ze-aluminium eziphezulu kunye neenkampani zeemoto ezidibeneyo ezinemithombo yazo ye-aluminium ziya kuxhamla kakhulu. Amashishini anemigodi phesheya kwezilwandle kunye neenkampani zemizi-mveliso ezipheleleyo ngaphakathi aya kufumana inzuzo engaphezulu kule ngxaki, nto leyo eyandisa ngakumbi umsantsa phakathi kwabakhuphisana nabo.
4. Isiphelo: 'Isitshixo sokukhawulezisa' kwingxaki
Umlilo wokudubula kuMbindi Mpuma ngokungalindelekanga wacinezela iqhosha elithi “accelerator” lokutshintsha kwamandla kwihlabathi liphela.
Nangona ukunyuka kwexabiso le-aluminium kuye kwabangela intlungu kwishishini lokuvelisa kwaye kunokubangela nokuguquguquka kwexesha elifutshane kwamaxabiso kunye nokuvalwa kwamashishini ngamanye, ngokwembono ye-macro, amaxabiso aphezulu e-fossil e-energy alungisa ngamandla ukuxhomekeka koluntu kumandla emveli ngamandla angaqhelekanga.
Ukunyuka kweendleko ze-760 yuan kubuhlungu, kodwa xa amanani kwizikhululo zepetroli enza abantu bathandabuze, le akhawunti sele inempendulo ezingqondweni zabathengi. Kwishishini elitsha lezithuthi zamandla, oku kusenokuba "lunyango lokukrwela amathambo":
Ngexesha elifutshane, ngumdlalo onzima weendleko nenzuzo;
Ekugqibeleni, sisixhobo sokunyusa uxinaniso lweshishini kunye nokuphindaphinda kwetekhnoloji (ezifana nee-alloys ze-aluminium ezingenabushushu obuphezulu kunye netekhnoloji edibeneyo yokusika i-die-casting ukunciphisa iindleko ze-unit aluminium).
Ixesha leposi: Matshi-26-2026