I-Moody's yathothisa imbonakalo yayo ye-US ezimeleyo yomgangatho wetyala ukuya kumbi, nto leyo eyadala inkxalabo enzulu kurhwebo malunga nokomelela kokuvuka koqoqosho lwehlabathi. Njengowona mandla aqhuba imfuno yempahla yorhwebo, ukwehla koqoqosho olulindelekileyo e-United States kunye noxinzelelo lwentsilelo yemali yenze ukucinezelwa kabini, okubangele uxinzelelo olubalulekileyo lwexesha elifutshane kwiimarike zobhedu kunye ne-aluminiyam. Nangona ukuhla kwesalathiso sedola yaseMelika kubonelele ngenkxaso kumaxabiso, ukuqina kokuchasana kwemfuno yonikezelo kunye nokuthungwa kokungaqiniseki komgaqo-nkqubo kuye kwanyusa kakhulu ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso esinyithi.
Icala lemfuno: Ukuhambelana phakathi kokucutheka kweziseko zophuhliso kunye nomqobo wokuthumela ngaphandle.
Ukuthotywa komlinganiselo wetyala lase-US kuchaphazela ngokuthe ngqo utyalo-mali olulindelekileyo kwiziseko ezingundoqo, kwaye ulawulo lukaTrump olucetyiweyo lwantlandlolo lwebhiliyoni eyi-500 yeebhiliyoni lunokunyanzeliswa ukuba luhlehlise umva, okukhokelela ekuncipheni kwemfuno yobhedu yokwakha nge-120000 ukuya kwi-150000 yeetoni ngonyaka. Ngelo xesha, umdlalo werhafu phakathi kweChina kunye ne-United States uyaqhubeka nokunyuka, kunye namahemuhemu ajikelezayo ukuba i-US iceba ukumisela i-25% yerhafu kwi-copper kunye ne-aluminium ethunyelwa ngaphandle. Oku kuya kuphakamisa iindleko zokwenziwa kwemveliso yasekhaya e-United States kwaye kucinezele imfuno yeemveliso ezicutshungulweyo ezingeniswa kumazwe angaphandle ezifana neeprofayili ze-aluminiyam kunye nemibhobho yobhedu. Ukuba amanyathelo achasene ne-EU aphunyeziwe, ukuhamba kwe-aluminiyam yehlabathi jikelele kunokujongana nohlengahlengiso, kunye neChina.ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-aluminiyamukuya eYurophu kunokujongana neendleko ezongezelelweyo zentlawulo ye-10%.
Icala lokubonelela: Umdlalo phakathi kokunciphisa imveliso kunye nokuqalisa kwakhona uyaqina.
Ukuphazamiseka kwecala lokubonelela kwimigodi yobhedu kuyaqhubeka, kunye nemveliso yeCodelco yaseChile iyancipha nge-18% ngonyaka kwikota yokuqala, kunye nomgodi wobhedu wasePeru waseLas Bambas ukunciphisa imveliso nge-30% ngenxa yoqhanqalazo loluntu. Nangona kunjalo, ukugqityezelwa kokugcinwa kwesinyibilikisi sasekhaya kukhokelele ekunyukeni kwe-0.37% ngenyanga kwimveliso yobhedu olusulungekisiweyo ngo-Epreli. Ngokubhekiselele kwi-aluminiyam ye-electrolytic, ukuqaliswa kwakhona kwe-hydropower e-Yunnan kuye kwatyhala amandla okuvelisa abuyele kwi-43.64 yezigidi zeetoni. Nangona kunjalo, ukurhoxiswa kwelayisensi yokuthumela ngaphandle kweGuinea ye-bauxite kuye kwaphakamisa inkxalabo malunga nokunikezelwa kwempahla ekrwada, okubangela ukuba amaxabiso e-alumina anyuke nge-12% ngosuku olunye kunye nenkxaso yeendleko ukuya kwi-17800 yuan / ton. Kuyafaneleka ukuba uqaphele ukuba uluhlu lwezobhedu lwe-LME luye lwanda ukuya kwiitoni ze-187000, ngelixa uluhlu lwe-aluminium luhlala lukwizinga eliphezulu leetoni ezingama-550000. Uxinzelelo lwe-inventri olufihlakeleyo alukakhululwa ngokupheleleyo.
Iindleko kunye noMgaqo-nkqubo: Impembelelo yoTshintsho lwaMandla kwiNgcaciso yeXabiso
Inguqu yamandla ehlabathi iyakhawuleza kwaye yenza buthathaka imfuno yesinyithi yemveli yemveliso. Ukuphuculwa kwe-EU carbon tariff mechanism ibangele ukunyuka kwe-8-10% kwiindleko zokunyibilikisa i-aluminium, kwaye izinga lokukhula kwemfuno ye-aluminium ye-photovoltaics inokuncipha ukusuka kwi-25% ukuya kwi-15%. Ukunyuka kwemveliso yeoli ye-shale e-United States kuqhube iindleko zamandla, kwaye i-marginal cost center ye-electrolytic aluminium ithotywe yaya kwi-$ 2500 / ton. Nangona kunjalo, ukuqiniswa kwemigaqo-nkqubo yokusingqongileyo kunokunyusa inkcitho enkulu kwiiprojekthi zolwakhiwo ezitsha zaphesheya. Ngaphakathi ekhaya, umgaqo-nkqubo weshishini lesinyithi elisetyenzisiweyo uqinisiwe, ngenjongo yokwandisa umlinganiselo wobhedu olusetyenzisiweyo ukuya kuma-40% ngo-2025, nto leyo enokuthi imise kwakhona ipateni yokubonelela ngobhedu kwihlabathi kwixesha elide.
Umbono ngekamva: Amathuba okwakhiwa phantsi kokunyuka kokuguquguquka.
Amaxabiso obhedu exesha elifutshane anokuvavanya inkxaso kwi-77500 yuan/toni, kunye nekhontrakthi ephambili yaseShanghai Aluminium igxile kukhuphiswano lwamanqaku eyuan angama-20000. Ukuba umgaqo-nkqubo we-infrastructure stimulus umgaqo-nkqubo we-US uwela ngaphantsi kokulindela, izinga lokukhula kwemfuno yobhedu kwikota yesithathu inokuhlaziywa ukuya kwi-1.8%, kwaye amaxabiso e-aluminium aya kujongana nomngcipheko weendleko zokuwa kwe-2500-2600 yeetoni. Cebisa ukunikel' ingqalelo kwimiqondiso emibini emikhulu: 1) ingaba uluhlu lwe-LME lobhedu luwele ngaphantsi kweetoni ze-150000; I-2) Ngaba ukulindela kwe-Federal Reserve ukusika inzala ngaphambi kweshedyuli ngenxa yokuwohloka kwedatha yezoqoqosho. Icandelo lemizi-mveliso kufuneka liphaphe malunga nemingcipheko ekhuselayo eyenziwa ngamanqanaba aphezulu oluhlu lwempahla. Abatyali-mali banokunikela ingqalelo kumathuba ahlukeneyo e-arbitrage kwaye babambe ifestile yokulungiswa kwexabiso le-aluminium yobhedu.
Isiphelo: Ukubethelela iNgcaciso yezoShishino ekuNgaqiniseni.
Ukwehliswa kwamanqaku ngokusisiseko yi-microcosm yokusilela kulawulo lwezoqoqosho lwehlabathi, kwaye imakethi yobhedu kunye ne-aluminium iphantsi kwexabiso lokutshintsha ukusuka "kwimfuno yokuqina" ukuya "kokuwa kweendleko". Abatyali-mali kufuneka baphume kumgibe wokuguquguquka kwexesha elifutshane, bagxininise kwiindlela zexesha elide zokuguqulwa kwamandla kunye nohlengahlengiso lwekhonkco lokubonelela, kunye nokuthatha amathuba okurhweba eziswa kukuchasana kwesakhiwo kuguquko.
Ixesha lokuposa: May-23-2025